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	Commentaires sur : Recent global heat waves are correlated to an exceptional solar cycle 24	</title>
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	<link>https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/</link>
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		<title>
		Par : J. van Vliet		</title>
		<link>https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2691</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J. van Vliet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Sep 2019 19:11:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.science-climat-energie.be/?p=6327#comment-2691</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[En réponse à &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2671&quot;&gt;Emmanuel SIMON&lt;/a&gt;.

Thank you for your remarks.
I certainly share your dream concerning the Maunder Minimum, but I think it will not come immediately.
A simple reasoning based on the Medieval Optimum around 1250 and the the Maunder Minimum around 1650 leads to a half period of 400 years.
Next Minimum - if it is periodic - should be expected by 1650 + 800 = 2450, while next Maximum should be reached by 2050: there are still warm years ahead.
But owing to Fig. 3 of the paper, the years 2021 to 2030 could be exciting, especially if some Alpine glaciers show some extension. This could be possible for the steep ones, with a short response time.
Keep an eye on the solar wind and on the steep glaciers.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>En réponse à <a href="https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2671">Emmanuel SIMON</a>.</p>
<p>Thank you for your remarks.<br />
I certainly share your dream concerning the Maunder Minimum, but I think it will not come immediately.<br />
A simple reasoning based on the Medieval Optimum around 1250 and the the Maunder Minimum around 1650 leads to a half period of 400 years.<br />
Next Minimum &#8211; if it is periodic &#8211; should be expected by 1650 + 800 = 2450, while next Maximum should be reached by 2050: there are still warm years ahead.<br />
But owing to Fig. 3 of the paper, the years 2021 to 2030 could be exciting, especially if some Alpine glaciers show some extension. This could be possible for the steep ones, with a short response time.<br />
Keep an eye on the solar wind and on the steep glaciers.</p>
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			</item>
		<item>
		<title>
		Par : J. van Vliet		</title>
		<link>https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2690</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J. van Vliet]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Sep 2019 18:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.science-climat-energie.be/?p=6327#comment-2690</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[En réponse à &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2680&quot;&gt;Parmelan&lt;/a&gt;.

Merci pour votre  réaction.
Pour répondre à votre question de prévision sans être un professionnel, les météorologues disposent d&#039;une foule d&#039;images satellites, de mesures de températures par satellite, de cartes de pression outre leurs modèles de prévision sur ordinateurs.
Comme une vague de chaleur met de 2 à 3 jours pour apparaître, cela laisse le temps d&#039;ajuster les modèles.
Je ne crois pas qu&#039;il y ait plus que cela.
Mais la prévision météorologique est un art, et non une science exacte.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>En réponse à <a href="https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2680">Parmelan</a>.</p>
<p>Merci pour votre  réaction.<br />
Pour répondre à votre question de prévision sans être un professionnel, les météorologues disposent d&rsquo;une foule d&rsquo;images satellites, de mesures de températures par satellite, de cartes de pression outre leurs modèles de prévision sur ordinateurs.<br />
Comme une vague de chaleur met de 2 à 3 jours pour apparaître, cela laisse le temps d&rsquo;ajuster les modèles.<br />
Je ne crois pas qu&rsquo;il y ait plus que cela.<br />
Mais la prévision météorologique est un art, et non une science exacte.</p>
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		<title>
		Par : Parmelan		</title>
		<link>https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2680</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Parmelan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Sep 2019 09:40:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.science-climat-energie.be/?p=6327#comment-2680</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Merci pour votre article plus qu&#039;intéressant. Effectivement des hivers rigoureux avec des étés chauds. Durant la période 1990-2015 La Suisse (29 stations) a connu un refroidissement les 4 premiers mois de l&#039;année (-0,11°/dec) et un réchauffement bien supérieur en valeur absolue le reste de l&#039;année.
Depuis 2015 les hivers sont également en réchauffement comme durant la période 1970-1990. La &quot;théorie CO2&quot; m&#039;a toujours laissé perplexe face à ce phénomène, à priori sans évènement particulier (volcanisme par exemple) qui pourrait venir à son secours.

Une petite question, comment les météorologues font-ils pour prévoir ces vagues de chaleur plusieurs jours à l&#039;avance? (surtout s&#039;il y a erreur sur leurs provenances)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Merci pour votre article plus qu&rsquo;intéressant. Effectivement des hivers rigoureux avec des étés chauds. Durant la période 1990-2015 La Suisse (29 stations) a connu un refroidissement les 4 premiers mois de l&rsquo;année (-0,11°/dec) et un réchauffement bien supérieur en valeur absolue le reste de l&rsquo;année.<br />
Depuis 2015 les hivers sont également en réchauffement comme durant la période 1970-1990. La « théorie CO2 » m&rsquo;a toujours laissé perplexe face à ce phénomène, à priori sans évènement particulier (volcanisme par exemple) qui pourrait venir à son secours.</p>
<p>Une petite question, comment les météorologues font-ils pour prévoir ces vagues de chaleur plusieurs jours à l&rsquo;avance? (surtout s&rsquo;il y a erreur sur leurs provenances)</p>
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		<title>
		Par : Emmanuel SIMON		</title>
		<link>https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2019/09/05/recent-global-heat-waves-are-correlated-to-an-exceptional-solar-cycle-24/#comment-2671</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Emmanuel SIMON]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Sep 2019 16:17:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.science-climat-energie.be/?p=6327#comment-2671</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sir, I appreciate your article highlighting current real facts « out of the walls which build up preconceived mind sets ». Congrats for the clarity of your well descriptive fig. 3 « solar 11-year cycles 23-24 » and the highlighted anomalies across the northern hemisphere.
Jet stream is possibly know by those of us who travel by plane.
Though, the mysteries of solar wind flux and its influences on the earth deserves to be better known by the many (including those « climatologists » who counteract to their effects). The later, easily concouring to the merits of solar energy for their EnR (or heating) panels may broaden their mindset, up in the atmosphere above their heads, with figures!

Our newsworld, said of « independant media », is flooded by wide-ranging – doubtful items – and by « aligned findings » of pseudo scientific studies. Each another amongst them fights for a share of readers / listeners or added funds, in a hope to subordinate the mass to their &quot;beliefs&quot;. Sort of dramatic attempts to seed up confusion and « brain-washing » in people.  Strangely, as you suggest, many of their sources find roots in so-said « experts » ideologist deep seated in WWF or Greenpeace and the like NGOs, adding up to the IPCC politically adepts and our zealous governants.
...........................................................................................
Currently a Mr Charles Castet writes out another article (*), pinpointing a maxim from a SMB Comics : « Humans aren’t doing what the math says, the humans must be broken »

L’esprit humain préfère une histoire convaincante aux chiffres.  « Personne ne prend une décision suite à un chiffre. Il faut une histoire. » Histoire de deux intellectuels qui ont changé notre manière de penser la psychologie humaine. 

(*)  https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/07/352847-lesprit-humain-prefere-une-histoire-convaincante-aux-chiffres
...........................................................................................
I also dream of the prospects 2020 and ahead (Maunder minimum will be back) described in the following article. Sorry however for distracting pubs occuring around : 

Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020
By Mindy Weisberger February 09, 2018
The sun may be dimming, temporarily. Don&#039;t panic; Earth is not going to freeze over. But will the resulting cooling put a dent in the global warming trend?
A periodic solar event called a &quot;grand minimum&quot; could overtake the sun perhaps as soon as 2020 and lasting through 2070, resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production and less ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth — all bringing a cooler period to the planet that may span 50 years.
The last grand-minimum event — a disruption of the sun&#039;s 11-year cycle of variable sunspot activity — happened in the mid-17th century. Known as the Maunder Minimum, it occurred between 1645 and 1715, during a longer span of time when parts of the world became so cold that the period was called the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850.  (cont&#039;d)
https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sir, I appreciate your article highlighting current real facts « out of the walls which build up preconceived mind sets ». Congrats for the clarity of your well descriptive fig. 3 « solar 11-year cycles 23-24 » and the highlighted anomalies across the northern hemisphere.<br />
Jet stream is possibly know by those of us who travel by plane.<br />
Though, the mysteries of solar wind flux and its influences on the earth deserves to be better known by the many (including those « climatologists » who counteract to their effects). The later, easily concouring to the merits of solar energy for their EnR (or heating) panels may broaden their mindset, up in the atmosphere above their heads, with figures!</p>
<p>Our newsworld, said of « independant media », is flooded by wide-ranging – doubtful items – and by « aligned findings » of pseudo scientific studies. Each another amongst them fights for a share of readers / listeners or added funds, in a hope to subordinate the mass to their « beliefs ». Sort of dramatic attempts to seed up confusion and « brain-washing » in people.  Strangely, as you suggest, many of their sources find roots in so-said « experts » ideologist deep seated in WWF or Greenpeace and the like NGOs, adding up to the IPCC politically adepts and our zealous governants.<br />
&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<br />
Currently a Mr Charles Castet writes out another article (*), pinpointing a maxim from a SMB Comics : « Humans aren’t doing what the math says, the humans must be broken »</p>
<p>L’esprit humain préfère une histoire convaincante aux chiffres.  « Personne ne prend une décision suite à un chiffre. Il faut une histoire. » Histoire de deux intellectuels qui ont changé notre manière de penser la psychologie humaine. </p>
<p>(*)  <a href="https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/07/352847-lesprit-humain-prefere-une-histoire-convaincante-aux-chiffres" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/07/352847-lesprit-humain-prefere-une-histoire-convaincante-aux-chiffres</a><br />
&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<br />
I also dream of the prospects 2020 and ahead (Maunder minimum will be back) described in the following article. Sorry however for distracting pubs occuring around : </p>
<p>Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020<br />
By Mindy Weisberger February 09, 2018<br />
The sun may be dimming, temporarily. Don&rsquo;t panic; Earth is not going to freeze over. But will the resulting cooling put a dent in the global warming trend?<br />
A periodic solar event called a « grand minimum » could overtake the sun perhaps as soon as 2020 and lasting through 2070, resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production and less ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth — all bringing a cooler period to the planet that may span 50 years.<br />
The last grand-minimum event — a disruption of the sun&rsquo;s 11-year cycle of variable sunspot activity — happened in the mid-17th century. Known as the Maunder Minimum, it occurred between 1645 and 1715, during a longer span of time when parts of the world became so cold that the period was called the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850.  (cont&rsquo;d)<br />
<a href="https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html</a></p>
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